German military assistance to Ukraine- too little and too late

Why the ring exchange system does not work

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With so-called ring exchange procedures, Ukraine is to be supported with weapons.  However, so far not a single exchange has been made.  An agreement with Poland could even fail once and for all.  How can that be?

What is the so-called arms exchange about?  Critics accuse the German government of not supporting Ukraine sufficiently with arms.  With a ring exchange procedure, Germany wanted to increasingly deliver heavy weapons to the country and in an indirect fashion.  Three partners are involved in the ring exchange, in the form the Federal Government intends to implement it: Germany as the donor country, an "exchange partner" and the Ukraine as the recipient country.  Ukraine will be supplied with Russian or ex-Soviet heavy weapons.  For example, she will receive tanks that come from southern and eastern European NATO countries.  Specifically, the Federal Government is in negotiations with Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia and Greece.  Their stocks are to be replenished with German equipment.

Why is the Federal Government relying on the exchange within supply rings?  The argument of the government coalition was very early on that the Ukrainians could handle tanks of Soviet design best as the Ukrainians did not have to be painstakingly trained and they had the spare parts for them.  At the same time, it is also clear that the Federal Government and especially the chancellor want to avoid, at all costs, that German battle tanks or armoured personnel carriers are used in Ukraine, that is the "Marder" or "Leopard".

There are many reasons for this - one can only speculate which ones are decisive: that German tanks should never shoot at Russian ones again was one of the lessons from the Nazi past and the Second World War.  In addition, there is a fear that Putin would regard direct tank deliveries as crossing (or rather: rolling over) a red line and this could lead to a dangerous escalation.  Officially, reference is made to an - verbal - agreement among NATO partners, according to which no one has supplied such Western war equipment.  That is why it would be extremely unpleasant for Germany too if Spain insisted on doing exactly that and really wanted to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine.  Whether that will happen is not yet certain.

Which ring exchange procedures have been completed so far?  Not a single one.  Almost three months ago, the German Bundestag decided by a large majority that the Federal Government should also support Ukraine with heavy weapons.  However, the Federal Government's current weapons list on the Internet so far only lists seven delivered self-propelled howitzers from Bundeswehr stocks.  In addition, the German armaments industry is scheduled to start delivering "Gepard" anti-aircraft tanks by the end of July.  Countries like Poland and the Czech Republic have already delivered T-72 main battle tanks and BMP1 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine.  The German Government then announced that it would make 15 Leopard 2 tanks from industrial stocks available to its NATO partner, the Czech Republic, as compensation.  But the exchange within supply rings has not yet been completed, just like with Poland, Slovakia, Greece and Slovenia.

Germany delivers tanks to the Czech Republic

The Czech Republic supports Ukraine with heavy weapons.  To compensate, the German government has now promised the Czech Republic "Leopard 2" tanks.

Why does it take so long?  The short answer is: it is because the ring exchange countries are usually not satisfied with the German offer.  This can be seen in the example of Slovenia.  It is the first country with which negotiations began in April.  In exchange for Slovenia supplying battle tanks and armoured personnel carriers (T72 and BMP1) to Ukraine, Berlin offered the "Marder" infantry fighting vehicle and the "Fuchs" armoured personnel carrier - both of which are obsolete models in the Bundeswehr and around 50 years old.  Instead, Slovenia was hoping for the new infantry fighting vehicle "Puma" and the main battle tank "Leopard" - that is, more modern equipment.  

There is a similar "ring exchange dispute" with the other partner states.  That is why the rings are as yet unfinished semi-circles.  By the way, another oddity: The Bundeswehr refused Ukraine the "Fuchs" armoured personnel carrier with the argument that the operational readiness of the troops would be endangered - but they are willing to hand it over to Slovenia.

How are negotiations with Poland progressing?  According to Polish sources, in the first two months of the Russian war of aggression, the country delivered up to 240 T-72 tanks and several dozen armoured vehicles to Ukraine.  The neighbouring nation is considered a principal arms supplier and supporter of Ukraine.  As early as May, Polish President, Andrzej Duda criticised the German government for not supplying a military replacement for the tanks in the near future.  At that time, it was said that Poland wanted the latest German Leopard tanks.  And even then the talks were considered deadlocked.  According to information from the ARD Berlin studio, they are now in danger of finally failing.  In a television interview this week, Poland's deputy Foreign Minister said there was no "real offer from Germany that could be considered." According to the CDU (Germany’s conservative opposition party) foreign affairs expert, Roderich Kiesewetter, the Federal Government recently offered Poland 20 re-treaded Leopard 2 tanks.  From April 2023, one tank will be delivered per month and from October 2023, three tanks per month will be delivered.  Apparently not enough from Poland's point of view.  However, the negotiations have not yet officially ended.  It has since become known that Poland has received the first of a total of 366 Abrams battle tanks from the USA.

What criticism is there of the ring exchange procedure?

Critics do not subscribe to the phase, "A good ring takes time to form": The CDU warns that, among other things, Germany's reputation and credibility will suffer among allies, especially in Eastern Europe, if things drag on for so long. In addition, many opposition politicians but also some in the government coalition, do not understand why Germany is not supplying the Ukraine more directly with modern equipment from its own stocks instead of with old Soviet material: As our freedom is being defended there and Russia cannot be allowed to win this war, the argument goes that the Ukraine should be given every conceivable military support.  However, Defence Minister, Christine Lambrecht has repeatedly pointed out that the Bundeswehr's reserves are now exhausted.  In reply, the most recent letter from Defence Committee Chairwoman, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann to Olaf Scholz made it clear that some within the coalition government would also like to see more speed in the delivery of weapons.  She received a very clear rebuff from the Chancellor to this letter.